Research Predicts Drastic Decline in Agricultural Output, Jeopardizing SDGs
KHARAGHPUR, 18 April 2025: A concerning study by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kharagpur has revealed the significant detrimental effects of surface ozone pollution on India's major food crops, particularly across the fertile Indo-Gangetic Plain and central India.
Researchers warn that this pervasive pollutant is actively hindering the nation's progress towards achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of ‘no poverty’ and ‘zero hunger’ by the target year of 2030.
The study, spearheaded by Prof. Jayanarayanan Kuttipurath and his team at IIT Kharagpur’s Centre for Oceans, River, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), shines a light on the escalating risks posed by rising surface ozone levels to staple crops such as wheat, rice, and maize.
In a statement released by the institution, IIT Kharagpur emphasized that the research, titled ‘Surface ozone pollution-driven risks for the yield of major food crops under future climate change scenarios in India’, uncovers how this "lesser-known but potent threat" has the potential to drastically reduce agricultural yields. "Surface ozone is a strong oxidant that damages plant tissues, leading to visible foliar injuries and reduced crop productivity," the institute explained, highlighting the direct impact of the pollutant on plant health.
The statement further elaborated on the vulnerability of essential food grains: "Consequently, achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 1 (no poverty) and 2 (zero hunger) by 2030 is a daunting task in the wake of rising air pollution, population growth and regional climate change. To protect crop health and ensure our food security, atmospheric pollution must be reduced and monitored."
By analyzing data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-6 (CMIP6), the research team assessed both historical trends and future projections of ozone-induced yield losses. The alarming findings indicate that under high-emission scenarios with insufficient mitigation measures, wheat yields could face an additional 20% reduction. Rice and maize are also projected to experience significant losses of around 7%.
The study pinpoints the Indo-Gangetic Plain and Central India as particularly susceptible regions, where ozone exposure levels could potentially exceed safe limits by a staggering sixfold. IIT Kharagpur cautioned that this severe ozone pollution could have profound implications for food security, not only within India but also on a global scale, given India's role as a significant exporter of food grains to numerous Asian and African countries. "[These challenges] pose significant threats to achieving the two Sustainable Development Goals," the institution reiterated.
While India has implemented the National Clean Air Programme, its primary focus has been on combating air pollution in urban centers. The IIT Kharagpur study crucially underscores that agricultural regions often remain unaddressed by these initiatives.
The research strongly advocates for the urgent implementation of targeted policies aimed at monitoring and curbing both air and ozone pollution specifically in farmland areas. The study suggests that enacting effective emission reduction strategies could significantly enhance agricultural productivity and play a vital role in safeguarding global food supplies in the face of increasing environmental pressures.
Image credit: ifpri.org
