PARIS/ France, 19 July 2025: Global agricultural and fish production is expected to grow by 14% over the next decade, driven by rising demand in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in Asia and Africa, according to the OECD–FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034.
Released jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Outlook outlines medium-term trends in agri-commodity markets and offers a comprehensive assessment of global agricultural prospects.
Demand driven by population and income
The report projects a 13% increase in global consumption of agricultural and fish products by 2034. Middle-income nations will see this growth led by urbanisation and income gains, with a shift towards nutrient-rich foods like dairy, meat, and fish. Meanwhile, in low-income countries, most growth in food demand will stem from population expansion rather than dietary diversification.
Despite these gains, per capita access to animal-based calories will remain unequal. By 2034, the average daily intake of livestock and fish products in low-income countries is expected to be just 143 kcal—well below the FAO’s recommended 300 kcal threshold for a healthy diet.
Productivity to drive production gains
Production gains will be fuelled primarily by productivity improvements, although expansion of cropland and livestock herds will continue in some regions. Africa and South Asia, where technological adoption remains uneven, are projected to contribute significantly to cropland expansion.
While productivity improvements are expected to reduce emissions intensity, the report warns of a 6% increase in direct agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2034 due to increased output.
Reducing hunger, emissions possible with right policies
A scenario analysis in the Outlook indicates that undernourishment could be eliminated and GHG emissions reduced by 7%—if global food production rises by 10% and productivity by 15%. This would require widescale adoption of existing emissions-reducing technologies like precision agriculture, improved livestock feed, and better nutrient management.
Trade remains vital
As production and consumption centres diverge geographically, international trade will play a growing role. The report estimates that by 2034, 22% of global calories will be traded across borders, up from 17% two decades ago. The authors emphasise the need for multilateral cooperation and rules-based trade to support global food security, price stability, and climate resilience.
Prices, smallholders under pressure
While productivity gains are likely to lead to a modest decline in real agricultural prices, smallholder farmers could face increased pressure. The report calls for greater support for inclusive technology access, input affordability, and effective risk management to protect farmer livelihoods.
The Outlook cautions that macroeconomic uncertainties—such as climate shocks, inflation, and geopolitical tensions—could still affect long-term projections and underscores the importance of agile policy frameworks.
Image credit: globalagri.com
