MUMBAI, 29 December 2025: If VARUNDEV favours, the faces of the farmers brighten with a rosy smile, and if he gets angry, the faces of the farmers turn pale and the market turns red in the boom. Two dangerous cyclones at the end of the last monsoon caused great devastation in the southern states.
The direct impact of which has been seen on the chilli crop. In the last two months, the prices of various varieties of chilli have seen a jump of 25 to 50 percent. Since farmers have not been getting much return on chilli cultivation for the last two years, there were reports that farmers are shifting from chilli cultivation to other crops.
In August 2025, there were reports that chilli cultivation had decreased by 30 percent. In addition, there were heavy floods in early September, followed by the storm in the last week of September, followed by other storms in the last week of October and even in November, which washed away the standing chilli crop.
According to traders sitting at the centres, the arrival season of new Bedgi chillies has started recently. The prices of the new season have opened at INR 450 to INR 500 per kg. Which were opened at INR 250 to INR 300 at the beginning of the last year season. There will also be an increase in the purchase of the month of Ramadan. The market will react especially to the inquiries of exporters from the UAE. In the last week, an average daily arrival of 80 thousand bags of chillies was recorded in the Guntur mandi.
The price of TEJA chillies during Diwali was INR 130 to INR 145 per kg, which was in the range of INR 160 to INR 175 in the last week. While the price of Kashmiri chillies during Diwali was in the range of INR 225 to INR 250 while it was in the range of INR 350 to INR 400 in the last week. This time the crop picture is so bleak that even traders and exporters who have been trading chillies for decades are confused. In India, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka are the main chilli cultivating states. However, in the coming season, the chilli crop in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh will be barely 60 to 70 percent of last year's production, while Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat are expected to produce barely 40 percent of last year's production.
In the financial year 2024-25, India exported about 715506 tonnes of chilli, which was much higher than the 601084 tonnes of chilli in the year 2023-24. Despite an increase of about 20 percent in exports in a single year, there was a decline of about 11 percent in foreign exchange earnings.
In 2023-24, India exported chilli worth INR 12492 crore, while in 2024-25, this export was worth INR 11404 crore. For which low prices of chilli in the domestic and global markets were responsible. Indian chilli is mainly exported to countries like China, Bangladesh, Malaysia, UAE and Indonesia. According to the Spice Board data, India generated INR 5232 crore from chilli exports during the period from April to September in the year 2025-26.
However, there are reports that the mindset of exporters has also changed as the market direction has changed after the cyclone. Now suddenly foreign inquiries have started in the market. Till now brokers were looking for exporters, now after a month exporters may be looking for brokers or sellers. It is a common game of hide and seek between the two groups, depending on the market trend.
It is still not certain how much crop will be there in the next season. Everyone is praying for good weather for the next two months. According to traders, the true picture of the crop will become clear by the end of February.
By Kalpesh Sheth is an commodities expert with years of experience.
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