ROME / Italy, 22 June 2025: In a sobering forecast for global agriculture, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations has warned that some of the world’s most critical food and cash crops may lose up to 50% of their most suitable farmland by the end of the century.
The alarming prediction comes with the latest update to FAO’s ABC-Map geospatial tool—an open-source, Google Earth Engine-powered platform that now includes a powerful crop suitability indicator for climate change adaptation planning.
The new data reveals that crops such as wheat, coffee, beans, cassava, and plantain could suffer major declines in their optimal growing zones due to worsening climate conditions, erratic rainfall, and rising temperatures.
“This is not about distant possibilities—it’s happening now,” said Martial Bernoux, FAO’s Senior Natural Resources Officer. “Farmers and governments must start preparing for the climate shocks ahead by rethinking what can be grown where.”
Mapping a Troubled Future
First launched in 2024 at the Global Forum for Food and Agriculture in Berlin, the ABC-Map (Adaptation, Biodiversity, and Carbon Mapping Tool) was part of FAO’s toolkit for COP28. Its new feature allows users to analyze how climate change will impact crop viability in specific regions through 2100, with customizable parameters and future climate scenarios.
The app currently tracks 30 major crops and will soon include indicators for livestock heat stress and crop water requirements, offering a comprehensive view of climate risk in agriculture.
Key Findings: Crop Suitability in Decline
The new crop suitability layer is based on a study by French fintech firm Finres, commissioned by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and funded by French Development Agency (AFD). The report, titled Have Crops Already Reached Peak Suitability?, paints a stark picture.
- Five of nine major food and cash crops have already begun losing their most suitable land.
- Coffee, especially in traditional growing regions of Latin America and Africa, is among the hardest hit.
- Wheat faces declining viability in North America and Europe, once its breadbasket.
- While maize and rice may see short-term gains in cultivable area, this advantage could vanish under high-emission climate scenarios.
A Tool for Resilience
The ABC-Map tool is not only a wake-up call—it’s also a decision-making platform for farmers, researchers, and policymakers. By offering detailed, location-specific insights, it helps users determine where current crops may become unsustainable and where alternative crops or techniques may need to be adopted.
“Users can now visualize if their crops will thrive, struggle, or fail in the future,” said Bernoux. “This information is critical to climate-resilient planning and food system sustainability.”
Policy Implications and Global Impact
The findings carry major implications for food security, trade, and rural livelihoods, especially in climate-vulnerable regions of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The FAO’s tool aims to support countries in meeting their commitments under the Rio Conventions, while encouraging data-driven adaptation strategies.
As climate instability continues to reshape global agriculture, the FAO’s message is clear: adapt now, or risk irreversible crop losses.
The updated ABC-Map tool is freely accessible and available in multiple languages, ensuring that decision-makers worldwide can start preparing for the realities of farming in a warmer world.
