NEW DELHI, 15 April 2025: India must reorient its agricultural policies and practices by reallocating resources from traditional staples such as rice and wheat to more diverse and nutrient-rich crops to meet the food demands of a growing population and changing dietary patterns, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) has recommended in a new policy paper.
According to the ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR-NIAP), by the year 2047, India’s total food demand will more than double, while the need for horticultural and animal-based nutrient-rich foods will surge up to four times the current levels. Yet, the agricultural land available to meet this soaring demand is expected to shrink from the current 180 million hectares (mha) to 176 mha.
The policy paper, "Indian Agriculture to 2047 – Reshaping Policies for Sustainable Development," underscores the urgency of realigning resource allocation toward high-value crops such as fruits, vegetables, pulses, and oilseeds to accommodate these evolving demands.
“Fruits, vegetables, pulses, and oilseeds are key crops that require increased focus to meet the changing dietary preferences and nutritional needs. Gradual reallocation of resources from rice and wheat to these crops is crucial,” the report stated.
India, aiming to become a developed economy by its centennial year of independence, will require a sustained GDP growth rate of around 8% annually. Simultaneously, the country’s population is projected to reach 1.6 billion, with nearly 50% residing in urban areas—triggering significant shifts in dietary preferences towards nutrient-dense foods like horticultural produce, dairy, poultry, and seafood.
The report projects that by 2047:
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Fruit demand will rise to 233 million tonnes (3% annual growth),
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Vegetable demand will climb to 365 million tonnes (2.3% annual growth),
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Pulse consumption will double to 49 million tonnes,
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Edible oil demand will increase by 50%, and
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Sugar demand will rise by 29%.
However, land-related constraints may impact farm productivity. The average size of landholdings is expected to shrink to 0.6 hectares, from nearly 1 hectare today, posing challenges to achieving economies of scale. Meanwhile, the net sown area is expected to drop to 138 mha, while cropping intensity is projected to rise from 156% to 170%—raising sustainability concerns.
The report warns that such intensification will put further stress on water and energy resources. With agriculture already consuming 83% of India’s total water use, the sector’s water demand is projected to rise by 18% by 2047.
In light of these pressures, the ICAR paper advocates for a strategic transformation of the agri-food system—emphasizing diversification, improved resource allocation, and increased productivity in sustainable crops, dairy, livestock, and fisheries. Livestock's share in the gross value of agricultural output is expected to increase from 31% to 39%, and fisheries from 7% to 10%.
Adding to the challenges, the report highlights that climate change has already eroded India’s agricultural productivity by approximately 25% over the past five decades. The frequency and severity of droughts, floods, and heatwaves are projected to rise, further threatening food and nutritional security.
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