MUMBAI, 24 June 2025: India’s agriculture sector could be in for a promising year as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an above-normal monsoon for 2025. The projection, which estimates 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall between June and September, has raised hopes of a strong Kharif harvest, potentially easing food inflation pressures.
But while the total rainfall figure appears encouraging, agricultural experts have urged caution, emphasizing the critical role of rainfall distribution and timing.
“The rainfall prediction is good. But what really matters is where and when it rains,” said Siraj Hussain, former Agriculture Secretary. “Even if overall rainfall is sufficient, concentrated downpours or prolonged dry spells can devastate crops.”
Regional Disparities Still a Concern
The IMD, while bullish on national averages, noted that some areas in the North-West, North-East, and South Peninsular India may receive below-normal rainfall, even as other regions are expected to receive normal to surplus precipitation.
Ashok Gulati, eminent agricultural economist and former chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, echoed this concern.
“In the past, there have been years with healthy monsoon totals but uneven regional distribution,” he said. “We’ve seen flooding in some areas and drought in others. This misalignment can be as damaging as a poor monsoon.”
The updated IMD forecast, expected in the last week of May, will shed more light on the spatial distribution of rainfall—crucial for regional crop planning and disaster preparedness.
Private Forecast Aligns with IMD
Private weather agency Skymet has also forecasted a normal SouthWest monsoon, predicting 103% of the LPA with an error margin of ±5%. This alignment between government and private forecasts offers greater confidence in the current projections.
Why Monsoon Matters
India's Kharif crops—including rice, maize, cotton, pulses, groundnut, sugarcane, and oilseeds—depend heavily on the June–September monsoon period. These crops form the backbone of India's food security and rural economy.
The agriculture sector supports 42.3% of the population and contributes around 18.2% to India’s GDP. A successful monsoon directly impacts farmer incomes, employment, and rural consumption, while also playing a role in curbing food price volatility.
Last year, erratic monsoon behaviour led to overextended rains into October, triggering floods and crop losses in several states.
The El Niño Factor: Neutral Outlook Helps
This year, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is forecasted to remain neutral during the monsoon season, which historically correlates with more stable rainfall patterns. Neutral ENSO conditions are considered a favourable backdrop for monsoon performance.
Policy Watch and Market Implications
If monsoon distribution remains steady, analysts believe India could see lower food inflation, stable agri-input demand, and stronger rural spending—positive signs for both the economy and consumer sentiment.
However, experts caution that climate change-induced unpredictability remains a looming threat.
“Weather is becoming more erratic than it used to be,” said Gulati. “We must continue to invest in climate-smart agriculture, irrigation infrastructure, and crop insurance to buffer against volatility.”
What Lies Ahead
As India gears up for the sowing season, all eyes are on the skies—and the soil. Timely, well-distributed rainfall could not only ensure a bumper harvest but also bolster macro-economic stability.
With the first forecasts setting a positive tone, stakeholders now await the updated regional forecast and on-ground rainfall patterns to assess the real impact.
Image credit: indiaincredible.co.in
