India Drives Global Grain Growth: Record Rice & Wheat Harvests in 2024/25
NEW DELHI, 13 April 2025: In its latest USDA April report on global agriculture trends, the United States Department of Agriculture projects record-setting production in key commodities, notably rice and wheat, despite widespread climate volatility.
India's agricultural sector stands out as a global leader, with weather patterns and farmer incentives reshaping planting decisions across continents. From soybean booms in Brazil to palm oil supply disruptions in Southeast Asia, the USDA’s data underscores the fragility of global food systems amid climate uncertainty.
Rice Production Soars: India Hits All-Time High, Cambodia Expands
India is expected to harvest an unprecedented 147.0 million metric tons (MMT) of milled rice in the 2024/25 marketing year. This surge stems from a historic 51 million hectares of planted area, as farmers increasingly shift from cotton to rice due to better returns and lower climate risk, especially in the fertile Indo-Gangetic plains.
Cambodia also saw a positive revision, with production rising to 7.8 MMT, driven by an 8% increase in dry-season planting. Improved irrigation and climate-resilient seed technology supported this growth.
Wheat Markets Watch India and China Lead, Russia Contracts
Global wheat production for 2024/25 is forecast at 796.8 MMT, with India achieving a record 113.3 MMT thanks to favorable growing conditions and expanded acreage. China's wheat crop is estimated at 140.1 MMT, showing resilience with improved yields.
In contrast, Russia's wheat outlook dropped to 81.6 MMT, significantly below last year’s figures due to reduced sowing and diminished yields in both winter and spring wheat.
Corn Yields Mixed: EU Rebounds, Argentina Faces Setbacks
Corn production in the European Union is set to reach 59.3 MMT, improving month-over-month, though still lagging behind last year’s output by 4%. Key contributors include Poland, France, and Croatia, while Romania declined.
Brazil saw its 2023/24 corn production revised upward to 154.5 MMT, with 2024/25 holding strong. However, Argentina is projected to produce just 50.0 MMT, hurt by excessive rains during the crop’s development phase.
Soybeans: Brazil Maintains Global Leadership, South Africa Surges
Brazil continues to dominate the global soybean market, maintaining a record production estimate of 169.0 MMT for 2024/25. The national yield reached 3.57 tons/hectare, up 6% from last year, supported by strategic rainfall patterns.
South Africa is experiencing a remarkable 30% YoY increase, now forecast at 2.4 MMT, aided by La Niña-induced rainfall and an all-time high in planted area. Meanwhile, Bolivia struggled with flood damage, reducing soybean yield by 10% and pushing production down to 3.7 MMT.
Sunflower Seed: Argentina Defies Delays with Strong Output
Argentina’s sunflower seed production is pegged at 4.2 MMT, up 8% year-over-year despite rainfall delays. Exceptional yields in the northern provinces and robust performance in Buenos Aires lifted the national average to 2.15 tons/hectare, reflecting high seed quality and resilience.
Palm Oil: Southeast Asia Hit by Rain, Production Slides
Malaysia’s palm oil output dropped to 18.7 MMT, marking a 5% annual decline as heavy rains disrupted harvests in regions like Sabah and Sarawak.
Indonesia’s output also saw a slight cut to 46.0 MMT, though still 7?ove last year. Riau province, a major production hub, experienced record-breaking rainfall, complicating logistics and collection processes.
Coarse Grains: EU Sees Modest Gains, Africa Recovers
Total global coarse grain output is projected at 1,495.3 MMT. The EU’s recovery in corn led the improvement, though minor reductions in barley and oats offset gains. In Africa, countries like South Africa and Tanzania are seeing a resurgence in maize and millet production, thanks to improved rainfall.
Cotton: Argentina Suffers Yield Loss Amid Dry Spell
Argentina’s cotton production fell to 1.5 million 480-lb bales, down 10% from last month. The decline stems from persistent dryness and heat stress during the critical boll formation stage, dragging yields down to 544 kg/hectare despite consistent planting area.
Climate Uncertainty Shapes Global Food Security
This USDA report highlights how climate volatility—from La Niña patterns in Africa to monsoon extremes in Asia—continues to reshape global agricultural output. While nations like India and Brazil post record-breaking gains, others like Argentina and Russia face stark production declines. As final harvest data arrives in May, market watchers are closely monitoring weather patterns, particularly for high-demand crops like rice, wheat, soybeans, and palm oil, where supply chain fragility could have significant global impact.
