NEW DELHI, 2 July 2025: India is poised to benefit from above-normal monsoon rainfall in July, a development that could bolster farm activity and support broader economic momentum, according to the India Meteorological Department.
“The monthly average rainfall over the country as a whole in July 2025 is most likely to be above normal, exceeding 106% of the long-period average,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at IMD, on Monday. The July long-term average stands at 280.4 millimeters based on 1971–2020 data.
Neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, which affect tropical Pacific temperatures and global weather patterns, are expected to persist, improving prospects for a stable monsoon through the rest of the season, IMD officials noted.
June’s rainfall already beat expectations, with India logging 180 mm compared to the normal 165.3 mm — the ninth-highest June rainfall since 2001. This has helped spur kharif sowing, with the total sown area reaching 26.21 million hectares by June 27, an 11.3% jump over last year.
Paddy acreage surged 47% to 3.5 million hectares, while pulses and oilseeds also expanded sharply. Sugarcane and cotton saw gains as well, reflecting farmers’ confidence in this year’s monsoon prospects.
However, IMD cautioned that below-normal rainfall is still possible across parts of the Northeast, eastern India, and the extreme south. Meanwhile, maximum temperatures are likely to stay normal to below normal in most areas, though slightly higher in some regions.
A strong monsoon is also feeding into improved macroeconomic indicators, with India’s retail inflation cooling to a six-year low of 2.82% in May, thanks largely to lower food prices. Food inflation decelerated to just under 1% in May, a sharp retreat from 8.7% the previous year.
IMD flagged potential risks from above-average rainfall, including floods, landslides, infrastructure damage, and public health challenges. Authorities have been advised to strengthen early warning systems, improve infrastructure resilience, and develop response plans to manage extreme weather events.
If the monsoon progresses as predicted, the positive effects on kharif production could help stabilize food supplies, ease inflationary pressures, and boost rural incomes — providing a crucial tailwind for India’s economic growth in 2025.
