NEW DELHI, 26 June 2025: India’s sugar production is projected to make a strong recovery in the 2025–26 season, rebounding from a five-year low of 29.5 million tonnes (MT) expected in the current 2024–25 cycle, according to the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA).
Favorable weather conditions, improved cane acreage in key producing states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka, and a forecast of an above-normal monsoon by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) are key drivers behind this anticipated turnaround.
Weather, Acreage Improvements Boost Outlook
“Sugarcane planting has improved significantly, especially in major sugar-producing states, and the enhanced monsoon last year supported healthy crop development,” said Deepak Ballani, Director General of ISMA.
Ballani added that this will lead to an on-time start to the crushing season in October 2025, ensuring sufficient sugar availability for domestic consumption and ethanol blending targets under India’s biofuel policy.
2024–25 Season Hit by Weather and Disease
The 2024–25 season, which began with an opening stock of 8 MT, has been marked by lower sugar recovery rates due to poor rainfall in 2023 and red rot disease outbreaks in parts of Uttar Pradesh. These challenges have driven the net sugar output (excluding ethanol diversion) down by 7% year-on-year.
Despite the decline, India will carry forward an estimated 5.2–5.3 MT of stock into the 2025–26 season, enough to meet early-season domestic demand.
Ethanol Diversion, Exports and FRP Hike
ISMA estimates that 3.3–3.4 MT of sugar will be diverted for ethanol production this year, up from 2.15 MT in 2023–24. This reflects India’s growing push for green energy through the ethanol blending program.
In January 2025, the government permitted the export of 1 MT of sugar from the 2024–25 crop, citing sufficient availability and stable prices after having restricted exports in 2023–24.
Additionally, in a major move to support farmers, the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) of sugarcane has been increased by 4% to ₹355 per quintal for the upcoming 2025–26 season.
Early Estimates to Be Released Soon
ISMA’s preliminary estimates for the 2025–26 sugar season—based on satellite imagery and field surveys conducted in June—are expected in July or August. These figures will offer early clarity on the expected sugarcane acreage and crop conditions for the year ahead.
Meanwhile, special crushing operations are set to begin in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu in June–July 2025, extending this season’s production cycle in southern India.
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