Strong output may ease food inflation and revive wheat product exports
NEW DELHI, 22 May 2025: India is poised to achieve a record wheat harvest this year, aided by favorable weather during the crucial grain-filling stage and the wider adoption of high-yield, climate-resilient seed varieties, according to government scientists and trade associations.
The wheat output, earlier threatened by the second-warmest February in over a century, has defied expectations thanks to relatively mild temperatures in March and April. “Climatic conditions remained supportive throughout the key phases of crop development, and there were no major incidents of hailstorms or crop diseases,” said Ratan Tiwari, Director of the Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates India’s 2024-25 wheat production at 117 million tons, a record high that would lift end-of-season stockpiles to their highest level in four years.
Flour Millers Call for End to Export Ban
Buoyed by the strong harvest, flour millers are now urging the government to lift its ban on wheat product exports, imposed in 2022 to curb domestic shortages following a heatwave-induced crop loss. “Government granaries are full, and private trade also holds adequate stocks,” said Navneet Chitlangia, President of the Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India. Just weeks ago, the federation had advocated for a reduction in wheat import duties due to supply concerns.
Chitlangia said that harvesting is nearly complete across major wheat-producing states, and the export of value-added wheat products like atta (flour), suji (semolina), and maida (refined flour) should be reconsidered to capitalize on international demand.
Procurement Surge, Policy Recalibration Underway
Government procurement is also strong. As of May 19, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) had purchased 29.6 million tons of wheat for state-run food programs — up 14% from last year. Total procurement from this season is projected to climb 22% to 32.5 million tons, said Food Minister Pralhad Joshi.
Joshi added that once procurement is completed, the Food Ministry will evaluate domestic needs and engage other departments to discuss the possibility of permitting exports of wheat and wheat-based products.
Economic Impact: Global Prices and Domestic Inflation
India's bumper crop could have a cooling effect on global wheat prices, which have risen nearly 3% this month amid tightening supply concerns in some regions. If India re-enters the export market, it could help ease international price pressures.
Domestically, higher output is also expected to tame food inflation, which has been a concern for policymakers and consumers alike. Lower wheat prices could bring relief ahead of crucial festival seasons and elections in several states.
Outlook: From Uncertainty to Optimism
In March, the Indian Ministry of Agriculture had forecast wheat production at 115.43 million tons, a number initially met with skepticism due to erratic weather patterns and the crop’s early stage of development. However, with most wheat-growing regions escaping adverse conditions such as heavy rainfall or heatwaves, confidence in the harvest has grown.
The world’s second-largest wheat producer, India’s decisions on wheat exports and food policy carry significant implications for global food security, particularly for South Asia, the Middle East, and parts of Africa that rely on Indian wheat and wheat products.
