Coffee exports totaled 3.1 million bags in August
BRAZILIA / Brazil: 17 September 2025: Coffee futures prices have risen considerably in recent days, supported mainly by Brazil's August export figures and concerns about short-term supply.
According to Cecafé, although higher than in July, shipments totaled 3.1 M bags in August, down 17.5% in one year. In the accumulated of 25/26 (Jun-Aug) there was a 24% reduction compared to 24/25. Accumulated exports of arabica fell 19.4% compared to 24/25, with a total of 6.07 M bags for the season. Robusta shipments totaled 1.55 M bags up to August, down 41.7% on the same period last year.
Hedgepoint Global Markets points out that lower exports were expected this year, due to a combination of lower arabica production in Brazil, a lack of interest from farmers in new sales and the fact that 2024 was a year of record shipments. This has also led to a reduction in shipments to most of the main destinations for Brazilian coffee, such as the EU and the US, although Japan has increased its imports of arabica and conilon coffees from Brazil.
In the case of the US, the current 50% tariff on Brazilian beans has also intensified the movement, as Cecafé said last week. Brazilian exports to the US in August totaled just 301,09 thousand bags of coffee, down 46.4% on last year and well below the historical average. Arabica exports to the US totaled 244,700 bags last month, a drop of 49.5% compared to 2024, while conilon shipments fell 75.1% in the same period, with only 9,500 bags.
The performance is also well below the average export figures for the country. Cumulatively, Brazil's shipments to the US are also below 2024 and the average, with a total volume of 1.1 M bags in 25/26 (Jun-Aug), down 26.3% from 1.6 M bags in 24/25.
"The recent reduction in Brazilian coffee exports to the US is expected to result in a short-term decline in the country's stocks. While rising prices may dampen US demand, lower stocks amid the off-season in other arabica-producing origins increase the risk of supply shortages, which is supporting prices. In addition, certified stocks continue to decline (see report), further reinforcing the tight short-term supply, "says Laleska Moda, market intelligence analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets. Meanwhile, the weather continues to be dry in Brazil, delaying the flowering of the 26/27 arabica crop.
"Forecasts suggest that the rains may not return until the end of September, and concerns about a possible La Niña event between October and December are adding uncertainty to the next production cycle.
These factors are contributing to high price volatility in the short term, with funds increasing their long positions. This also led the December arabica contract to go back to 417 c/lb on Monday the 15th,"says Moda.
Despite the current challenges, a price correction in the medium term is still possible, particularly for Brazilian domestic prices and differentials. Firstly, blooms in arabica areas remain minimal, with little impact from the lack of rain for the time being.
"Therefore, if rainfall levels return closer to average from the end of September onwards, there is still the possibility of higher Arabica production in the next cycle, while Conilon prospects remain positive for the
26/27 cycle," explains Moda.
In addition, Hedgepoint Global Markets assesses that although Brazilian arabica production for 25/26 is lower, the decline in exports - particularly to the US - suggests a short-term increase in domestic stocks. If this trend continues, the surplus of coffee that would otherwise be exported could remain on the local market, increasing availability in the coming months and potentially putting pressure on Brazilian differentials.
"This scenario, however, remains dependent on the weather outlook in Brazil l and the continuation of tariffs on Brazilian beans. Thus, any changes in trade tariffs or weather conditions could lead to significant price fluctuations, up or down, as the market remains supply-sensitive,"he concludes.
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