MUMBAI, 6 October 2025: Excess of anything causes problems in society. If the excess of Ravana's pride caused the destruction of Lanka, this time the excess of rain has caused the loss of cotton farmers. Thus, at the beginning of Navratri festivals, the ginners start tying bales and selling cottonseed.
But this time, due to the rain, the cotton remaining in the fields or lying in the mandi has become soaked in most of the states that harvest cotton. In addition, the new season of ginning has been delayed due to the delay in the arrivals of new kapas.
On September 24, 2025, the price of cottonseed oil cake per quintal was INR. 2872, which increased to INR. 2976 on October 3, 2025. Shankar Kapas prices have fallen to the range of INR 1,550 per maund in NCDEX futures.
In the past week, there have been reports of crop damage due to rain in all the Kapas cultivating states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. There have been reports of damage to cotton crops in an area of 2.75 lakh hectares in Nashik region. This is approximately 30 percent of the total area of nine lakh hectares of rainfed area here.
However, Kapas arrivals are increasing in other states except Gujarat and Maharashtra. Due to heavy rains in Hingoli, Jalna and Akola areas of Maharashtra, new Kapas still have about 90 percent moisture. According to the estimates of the professional survey, it has been estimated that 290 to 295 lakh bales will be produced in India in the next season. This time, cotton cultivation in India is also expected to decrease by about seven percent to a total of 115 lakh hectares.
Shankar Kapas prices are currently quoted at INR 7,700 per quintal, which is INR 500 less than the Minimum support price fixed by the government. It is noteworthy that the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) had started large-scale procurement of Kapas from the beginning of the last season.
Due to which the supply of cotton seed in the market was maintained. Last year, the government purchased Kapas from which 100 lakh bales were produced. This time, it is also certain that farmers will come to sell their goods to the government as the current market price is still lower than the minimum support price.
The cottonseed meal lying in the NCCL godowns has been taken away by traders as the expiry date approaches. In the last season, about 95,000 tons of cotton seed meal was deposited. For the next season, Wardha has also been made a delivery centre in NCDEX.
Millers from the Yavatmal area will also be able to deposit cottonseed meal. Thus, now there will be three delivery centres for cottonseed meal, namely Kadi in Gujarat and Akola and Wardha in Maharashtra. Apart from this, this time the exchange has also accepted the millers' demand to increase the oil percentage in cottonseed meal to 6.50 percent instead of six percent, so there is a possibility of more meals being delivered now.
The Meteorological Department has still predicted scattered rains, new crop estimates may come once an exact picture of damage will be available, which is yet to be determined in Maharashtra. Currently, the average daily trading in cottonseed meal in the exchange futures is INR 25 crore, while the open interest is 16,000 tonnes, so it is assumed that preparations are underway for new deliveries. It is reported that hedging of the commodity has started in the April-2026 futures of Shankar Kapas.
The situation in the global market is volatile. Therefore, hedging will be necessary for safe trading. The picture of the Kapas crop and the fate of farmers will become clear when the true figures of losses are released.
By Kalpesh Sheth is an commodities expert with years of experience.
