MUMBAI, 15 December 2025: Rain and rain, rain again.! When the sowing of the last Kharif season started, looking at the pace at which the area under turmeric cultivation was increasing in Maharashtra and the South, it seemed that there would be a record production in the coming season.
But God rain was in a different mood and the picture of the crop has changed. Heavy floods in the first week of September, then in the last week of September, then in the last week of October and if not in November, the cyclone caused heavy damage to the turmeric crop.
he graph of the turmeric prices was seen climbing up with every round of floods. In the first week of October 2025, the price of turmeric per quintal in the NCDEX futures was INR 12,100, which increased to INR 15,500 in the second week of December 2025. The market moved up by about 30 percent in two months. The situation is similar in the spot market where Salem turmeric is being sold at a price of INR 15,400 to INR 15,500.
Cyclone Montha damaged 43,000 hectares of Andhra Pradesh in the last week of October. Cyclone Ditvah in November caused huge loss to the standing turmeric crop in the fields. Due to which the turmeric in the ground was damaged. This time, the turmeric production in India was expected to be 4.75 lakh tonnes, but now the crop may decrease. It should be remembered that last year, 380,000 tonnes of turmeric were produced in India.
Since last year's production was the lowest in the last five years, there was a stock of 88,000 tonnes of turmeric when the 2024-25 marketing season started. Which will be barely 8,000 tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing season. The continuously decreasing stock was one of the reasons for the boom, and as reports of crop damage came in, the investor sentiment has also become bullish.
In November, when the spot price of turmeric was at INR 14,800, export deals of about 300 tonnes were made. But at prices above INR 15,200, export demand decreases. In such a situation, if the price remains above INR 15,500 for a long time, there is a possibility of an increase in imports from Myanmar and Indonesia.
Because foreign turmeric becomes cheaper at high prices, traders buy foreign goods. If the price remains high for a long time, India's exports may also be affected. India exported 176,288 tonnes of turmeric in the year 2024-25. Which was more than the export of 162,012 tonnes in the year 2023-24.
However, interesting equations are being formed in the new season futures. There are currently opportunities for investors to get good returns between the futures of April-26 and May-26. The prices of the futures of April were trading at INR 16300 while the prices of the month of May were trading at INR 16200.
Generally, the prices of the futures of May should be higher. The current reverse situation is likely to come in the right direction in the coming days. This means that those who buy the futures of May and sell the futures of April will get the opportunity to earn profit from the price difference between the two futures.
Since the futures of April are directly after December on the exchange platform, the business will be done in those futures. Moreover, there is a time of two to three months for the arrival of the new season goods. The average daily volume in the NCDEX turmeric futures is currently INR 100 crore while the open interest is 18400 tons. Now, until new arrivals begin, there will be uncertainty in the market, so it is imperative for traders to hedge prices and make deals.
By Kalpesh Sheth is an commodities expert with years of experience.
