MUMBAI, 27 June 2025: Global sugar production is set to rise significantly in the 2025–26 season, led by strong gains in India and Brazil, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The USDA’s biannual report forecasts global output to increase by 8.6 million tonnes, reaching 189.3 million tonnes, despite production declines in the European Union.
The rise in output from India and Brazil—two of the world’s largest sugar producers—is expected to offset lower production in Europe, where reduced beet cultivation is dragging overall yields.
Brazil to Hit Record 44.7 Million Tonnes
Brazil, the top global producer, is projected to increase sugar output by 1 million tonnes to reach a record 44.7 million tonnes, thanks to favorable weather boosting yields. However, the sugar/ethanol production mix is expected to tilt toward ethanol, with only 49% of cane directed to sugar production (down from 51% last season), as ethanol blending becomes more profitable. Exports are set to rise alongside the overall production increase, while domestic consumption may dip slightly.
India Sees Over 25% Surge in Production
India’s sugar output is forecast to rise over 25% to 35.3 million tonnes, driven by favorable monsoons and expanded sugarcane acreage, especially in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka. With supply up, both exports and closing stocks are expected to rise. Domestic consumption will also grow, buoyed by increased demand from the food processing and food service sectors.
Global Trends: Thailand, China, and the EU
Thailand is projected to produce 10.3 million tonnes, a 2% increase from last year, owing to better cane yields. However, exports are forecast to fall due to stronger competition from Brazil.
China’s sugar production is expected to rise by 500,000 tonnes to 11.5 million tonnes, supported by expansion in sugarcane cultivation and favorable weather for sugar beet crops. Imports will continue to meet demand shortfalls, while stocks will rise modestly.
In contrast, European Union sugar output is forecast to decline by 9% to 15 million tonnes, with beet acreage dropping 10% in major producing countries such as France and Germany. EU imports are expected to rise to balance the fall in domestic supply, while exports are forecast to decline.
Stocks and Trade Outlook
While global exports are projected to decline, particularly from Thailand and the EU, ending inventories are forecast to increase, largely driven by stockpiling in India and China.
The USDA's report reflects robust production resilience in Asia and South America, positioning these regions to stabilize global supply chains and support ethanol blending targets, even as traditional producers in Europe face headwinds.
Image credit: allieddigestivehealth.com
