MUMBAI, 22 September 2025: In the market yards of Junagadh and Gondal in Saurashtra and in Bikaner and Kota in Rajasthan, you can see opinion makers and advisors on the groundnut and soybean price fluctuations.
These advisors push their ideas after reading the evening newspapers because the arrival of the new season of edible oilseeds has started. However, there is a big difference between those who become experts by reading the evening newspapers and those who open the true market prices by counting the trucks that have arrived in the morning.
Those people are real traders. The prices of groundnut and soybean have started falling in the market only because of the expectation that the groundnut crop will be bigger this time. On 8th September-2025, the price of groundnut in Bikaner was quoted at INR. 5200 per quintal, which had come down to INR. 5025 on 18th September.
Similarly, soybean prices in Indore and Kota have dropped from INR 4,750 to INR 4,550. It should be remembered that for the current Kharif season, the government has fixed the support price for groundnut at INR 7,263 per quintal and the support price for soybean at INR 5,329 per quintal.
Now you will understand the reason why around nine lakh farmers registered online in a week to sell groundnuts to the government in Gujarat. This figure is expected to reach 10 lakh. Which will be a new record. So far, the goods are coming in with high moisture. The arrival of goods with less moisture will start after Navratri.
A similar situation is with soybean. The prices of which are also currently running below the (MSP) support price fixed by the government. According to the data provided by the government, this time the Kharif oilseeds have been planted in 188.81 lakh hectares, which was recorded in 193.93 lakh hectares last year. However, traders are not ready to accept government estimates. In Gujarat alone, this time the planting of groundnuts has increased by 15 percent.
Usually, groundnut is planted in 17.50 lakh hectares in Gujarat, but this time the area planted has been more than 22 lakh hectares. If this estimate is correct, then the production of groundnut will cross the mark of 60 lakh tons. Now government agencies will start oilseeds procurement. In fact, NAFED has a stock of four lakh tons of groundnuts, now it will purchase new goods, which may raise a question of where it should be kept. In the previous season too, NAFED purchased 1.3 million tons of groundnuts. This time, the government is targeting to purchase 1.5 million tons of groundnuts.
Soybean cultivation in Gujarat is gradually increasing. This time too, soybean cultivation is expected to be in 2.77 lakh hectares in the state. Which is on average 2.60 lakh hectares. This time too, the supply of soybean is expected to be more in the global market.
According to the USDA report, the total production will be 4258 lakh tonnes. Brazil is expected to produce 1750 lakh tonnes of soybean. Which will be 10 lakh tonnes more than last year. Since the 2015-16 season, global soybean production has increased by 1000 lakh tonnes, which is more than any other oilseed crop in the world. The world's second and third largest producing countries, the United States and Argentina, are expected to see a slight decline, in which production will be 1170 lakh tonnes and 485 lakh tonnes respectively.
New arrivals will start in full swing soon, but the last phase of heavy rains across the country in the past week may delay the crop. Although groundnuts will still benefit from this rain, there are reports of damage to the soybean crop in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. There are reports of extensive damage to soybean in Jhalawar in Rajasthan and Ratlam belt in Madhya Pradesh. When this commodity comes to the market, its quality can play a big role in determining the market price.
Mustard cultivation will start in the coming days. There is a need to increase oilseed production to increase the supply of edible oil in the country and reduce imports. For this, scientists have now requested the Prime Minister to allow the cultivation of GM mustard. A case is going on in the Supreme Court on this issue.
By Kalpesh Sheth is an commodities expert with years of experience.
Image credit: thedollarbusiness.com
