NEW DELHI, 8 September 2025: Since the era of AKHAND BHARAT, commodity business in our country used to trade on trust and relationship. But the 200-year-old tradition has now become obsolete. Now, people who trade in untrustworthy business by believing unauthorized reports have to suffer huge losses.
At present, the castor crop has bloomed in the fields of Gujarat and Rajasthan, but people are struggling to understand the figures of losses due to heavy rain and looking confused. NCDEX futures have fallen by INR 500 per quintal in the last two months. When planting started, i.e. on 3 July-2025, the price of castor per quintal was INR 7050, which had come down to INR 6560 in the last week on 2 September-2025.
This time, castor oil plantation in Gujarat is likely to increase by 10 to 12 percent, however, traders sitting at farm locations say that due to damage caused by heavy rains, many areas in North Gujarat have had to be planted two-three times, which the government calls new plantations. Now the question has arisen as to whom to trust.
According to government data released on September 1, castor oil has been sown in 7.53 lakh hectares in India. Out of which 5.95 lakh hectares are sown in Gujarat and 1.29 lakh hectares in Rajasthan. It should be remembered that last year, the sowing of the entire season was recorded at 8.56 lakh hectares. This time, the final sowing figures will come after a month, so everyone expects the sowing to increase.
If we look at the castor oil arrivals figures from January to August, 621107 lakh tonnes of castor oil arrived in 2023, which was 566389 lakh tonnes in 2024, while 503011 lakh tonnes of castor oil have arrived so far in 2025. On the other hand, 442969 tonnes of castor oil were exported in 2023 from January to August, while 503329 tonnes were exported in 2024 and 481508 tonnes of castor oil have been exported so far in 2025. These figures indicate that exports have decreased.
Similarly, India has exported 85032 tonnes of castor oil during the period from April-25 to July-25, which is less than the export of 100901 tonnes during the same period last year. Thus, there has been a decrease in the exports of both castor oil and meal. Experts believe that if the pace of exports continues at this lower rate, exports could decline by as much as 15 percent by the end of the year. Added to this, there is the issue of tariffs. On the other hand, the cultivation is high, so stockists are selling the goods, due to which the prices are dwindling.
Perhaps this is the reason why traders who trade in cash & carry by understanding the difference between the NCDEX futures price and the spot market price are currently getting high returns of up to 20 percent annually. The average daily trade in futures is currently INR 50 crore, while there is an open interest of 37,000 tonnes.
However, the history of the castor oil business says that when the price goes very low, farmers and traders stock up because this agricultural product does not spoil for three-four seasons. Then when the price increases, often more goods than the total production of the season come into the market. Therefore, the price picture will be clear once the season starts and export demand.
By Kalpesh Sheth is an commodities expert with years of experience.
