MUMBAI, 20 October 2025: Turmeric, a natural antibiotic and used in auspicious functions and religious rituals during Diwali, is also proving auspicious for farmers and traders. Due to the sudden demand for exports, the price of turmeric has seen a surge of about 20 percent in the last 10 days.
If we look at the futures data of NCDEX, the price of turmeric per quintal on October 6, 2025 was INR 12,100, which increased to INR 14,975 on October 17, 2025. There are reports that the turmeric crop has been severely damaged due to unseasonal rains in the turmeric-growing areas of Maharashtra in the last week of September. Earlier, the turmeric crop had also been severely damaged due to rains in the first week of September. This time the monsoon arrived early, so the sowing was also early. If anything, there was a surge in domestic markets due to festive shopping, along with a surge in export demand. All these factors for growth came together to create a sudden bull run.
Turmeric production figures may also be lower than previously expected. Which may cause loss to farmers. But if the prices remain at higher notes, they will get a reasonable profit. At the beginning of the 2024-25 marketing season, there was a stock of 88,000 tonnes of turmeric in India. Which is estimated to be barely 8,000 tonnes at the beginning of the 2025-26 marketing season.
The current stock will be the lowest stock in the last five years. The biggest reason for the boom is that the opening stock of the season has been continuously decreasing for the last three years. Due to which the mentality of stockists and exporters remains bullish.
However, this time, turmeric production in India is estimated to be 4.75 lakh tonnes, which was 3.8 lakh tonnes last year. Last year's production was the lowest in the last five years, which has a direct impact on the opening stock and price this time. India exported 1.76 lakh tonnes of turmeric in the marketing year 2024-25. Which is the highest in the last four years.
While 1.2 lakh tonnes of turmeric is reported to have been exported in 2025-26. Domestic consumption is expected to be 3.5 lakh tonnes compared to three lakh tonnes last year. The total demand for turmeric was 4.76 lakh tonnes last year. This time too, it is estimated to be 4.7 lakh tonnes or slightly more. While the total supply is expected to increase by 10 thousand tonnes compared to last year.
The Maharashtra government is still preparing the figures of the damage caused by the rain. While the traders sitting at the stations are bullish according to their estimates. In the NCDEX futures, the prices of the futures for the coming months are also quoted high. Because there is still a lot of uncertainty about the production figures. Perhaps this is the reason why people are turning to hedging. Currently, an average daily volume at NCDEX is INR 110 crore. Even during that boom period, investors also keep their deals open. Due to which the open interest is also 19,700 tons.
Due to the uncertainty of the crop in the local market, everyone is currently trading according to their own estimates. After the crop picture becomes clear in the coming days, the true direction of the market will be decided. However, the market will also have a big impact on the quality of the crop. Because poor quality goods are not going to work in the export trade. In such times of uncertainty, those who set their trade with hedging will be in profit.
By Kalpesh Sheth is an commodities expert with years of experience.
Image credit: 6rasa.com
