MUMBAI, 10 November 2025: Spice traders around the world were keeping an eye on the cyclones and unseasonal rains in India in the past week. As the Rabi season has started, everyone was getting an idea of how the rains would affect the crops.
In many areas, the ongoing sowing had to be stopped, while in many places it was delayed. However, traders and stockists suddenly turned bullish. This is the reason why cumin futures saw a sudden boom after October 15. On October 15, 2025, the price of cumin per quintal on NCDEX was INR 19,000, which increased to INR 20,625 on November 3, 2025. However, this boom has taken a break after the rains stopped. On November 7, cumin prices were showing a level of INR 19,900.
Due to the moisture in the soil after rain, the Rabi crop will benefit, but the weather is not cool enough for the cultivation of cumin yet. However, ever since China started buying cumin instead of selling it, the factors of the bullish market have become active. Because traditionally China is a big consumer of Indian cumin.
Apart from this, there are reports that stockists have also become active for the purchase of Ramadan and Dubai Festival. According to traders sitting at the stations, the prices of cumin are currently not very remunerative, so if farmers plant groundnuts this time, the cultivation of cumin may decrease.
If we look at the statistics, at the beginning of the marketing year 2025-26, there was a carry forward stock of 1,38,000 tonnes. Which was barely 49,000 tonnes at the beginning of 2024-25. In addition, the production of cumin was 4,50,000 tonnes, which was recorded at 5,25,000 tonnes in the marketing year 2024-25. Imports have remained between 5,000 tonnes and 15,000 tonnes in the last 10 years. Thus, India's share in the total world production of cumin is about 80 percent. Therefore, cumin is considered an export-oriented commodity for India.
In the financial year 2024-25, India exported 2,30,000 tonnes of cumin, while in the previous year, we exported 1,65,000 tonnes of cumin. According to the trade sources data, India exported 14,532 tonnes of cumin in August 2025. Export trade has reportedly opened up since then. The total annual consumption of cumin in the domestic market ranges from two lakh tonnes to 2.25 lakh tonnes on an average.
This time too, it is expected to remain the same. If we calculate the export and domestic demand, India will require a total of four lakh tonnes of cumin, against which the total supply is expected to be around six lakh tonnes. Last year too, the demand and supply figures were similar. Experts believe that only if the total supply goes below five lakh tonnes, then only a new demand emerges in the market at the end of the season, then a surge in prices is seen.
The arrival of old goods is currently ongoing in the markets of Gujarat and Rajasthan. Farmers are clearing out old cumin at higher prices to make room for new cumin. However, the biggest factor for the upcoming season is the weather. The boom that is happening today may not happen in January-26. In such an uncertain situation, farmers should buy put options on the NCDEX exchange and stay safe. The average daily volume of NCDEX futures is currently INR. 25 crore, while open interest remains at 4000 tonnes.
By Kalpesh Sheth is an commodities expert with years of experience.
