MUMBAI, 29 September 2025: The sowing of wheat, considered the favourite grain of the Rabi season, will now begin. Wheat Politics dominating in India. Even before the sowing begins, demands and recommendations regarding wheat stock and export permission have started coming in.
Before the sowing, the government will announce the support price of wheat for the new season like every year. Usually, it is announced in the month of October. Last year, the government had announced on October 16, 2024 to increase the support price of wheat from INR 2275 per quintal to INR 2425.
People will be watching what happens this time. However, traders are also watching India's policy regarding wheat in the global as well as domestic market. Because India ranks second largest wheat producer in the world, and a prominent player in consumption. The most important point is that Indians living abroad also prefer Indian wheat to make roti because the glue tone of wheat from other countries is different.
Wheat demand is poor in the local markets, so prices have stabilized. It is not yet certain how the next season's crop will be, but as soon as the central government announced that India had a record production of 1175 lakh tonnes in the previous season, exporters immediately demanded export permits.
The flour traders of the Roller Flour Millers Federation claimed that many companies make flour only for Indians living abroad. Such companies should be allowed to export. However, it seems that the government is in a safe playing mood. Export permission will be given only after the estimate of the next season's crop. Considering the current tariff war and political uncertainty, our top priority is to take care of food security.
The possibility of the government allowing the export of a total of 10 lakh tonnes of flour, semolina and maida is being discussed in the market. Apart from this, there is also a demand for zero GST. Currently, Modiji is making promises to reduce GST in public meetings, so it would not be surprising if wheat flour is included in the promises.
It is true that currently there is a difference of $80 to $90 per tonne between the price of wheat in the global market and the price of wheat in India. If there is a buffer stock and additional wheat is available, the government can consider exporting wheat. However, in the current circumstances, millers have recommended keeping more buffer stock to keep the domestic price of wheat stable. According to the current rules, it is necessary to have a buffer stock of 75 Lakh tonnes at the beginning of the season.
But millers recommend keeping 140 percent more stock. India requires 184 Lakh tonnes of wheat every year for PDS sales. However, if the government stops sales as per this recommendation, the government's investment will increase. Arrangements will also have to be made to keep stocks with FCI. Therefore, the government may not accept this recommendation.
Due to the recent terrible floods in Punjab, farmers and fields have been completely destroyed. For now, farmers will repair their house first, then repair their fields and then start sowing. In such a situation, wheat sowing in Punjab is likely to be delayed. Since seeds have also been washed away in many areas of the state, the Uttar Pradesh government has to arrange for wheat seeds. It will also be seen how the yield from these seeds is.
By Kalpesh Sheth is an commodities expert with years of experience.
Image credit: csisa
