NEW DELHI, 17 March 2026: The Government of India has successfully conducted an AI-based pilot for local monsoon forecasting to support farmers in making informed Kharif sowing decisions.
The initiative was led by the Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare in collaboration with Development Innovation Lab India.
Advanced AI Models Power Forecasting
The pilot leveraged a blended open-source AI model, combining:
-
NeuralGCM (AI weather model)
-
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)’s AI Forecasting System (AIFS)
-
125 years of historical rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department
The system focused on predicting the local onset of monsoon, a critical factor in determining optimal sowing time.
Massive Outreach to Farmers
Forecasts were disseminated via SMS through the M-Kisan Portal, reaching:
- 3.88 crore farmers
- Across 13 states
In five regional languages: Hindi, Odia, Marathi, Bangla, and Punjabi
Positive Impact on Farming Decisions
Feedback collected through surveys conducted via Kisan Call Centers in Madhya Pradesh and Bihar revealed:
- 31% to 52% of farmers adjusted their planting decisions
- Changes included:
- Sowing timing
- Land preparation
- Crop and input choices
This demonstrates the practical utility of AI-driven weather insights in improving farm productivity and risk management.
Scaling Up for 2026
Encouraged by the pilot’s success, the government plans to integrate this capability into a national-level forecasting system using in-house solutions.
The initiative will be strengthened through collaboration with:
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)
- India Meteorological Department (IMD)
- Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO)
Dynamical models developed by IITM, which have shown strong performance in predicting local monsoon onset, will be integrated into the AI framework for Kharif 2026.
The update was shared by Bhagirath Choudhary, Minister of State for Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, in a written reply in the Lok Sabha.
The initiative marks a significant step toward data-driven agriculture in India, combining AI, meteorology, and satellite inputs to:
- Improve crop planning
- Reduce weather-related risks
- Enhance farmer incomes
As India scales this model nationally, AI-powered monsoon forecasting could become a cornerstone of smart agriculture and climate resilience.
Image credit: pmfias.com
