AMSTERDAM / Netherlands, 28 September 2026: Aquaculture has overtaken capture fisheries as the world's largest source of aquatic animals for human consumption, but the sector's growth is slowing at a time when global demand for aquatic food continues to rise, according to a new report by the World Agriculture Forum (WAF).
The report, “Blue Economy Rising: Oceans, Aquaculture, and the Future of Food Security,” examines the changing role of oceans and aquaculture in global food security and argues that the industry's next phase will depend less on developing new technologies and more on scaling solutions that have already been proven commercially.
Global aquatic food production reached a record 142 million tonnes in 2024, according to the report. While capture fisheries have remained broadly flat for almost two decades, aquaculture has continued to expand and now supplies more aquatic animals for human consumption than wild fisheries.
However, the report highlights a significant slowdown ahead. Citing Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projections, it says the annual growth rate of aquaculture could fall by about 60 per cent over the coming decade, from 4 per cent during 2012-2022 to 1.6 per cent during 2022-2032.
Water and disease among key constraints
The projected slowdown is linked to a combination of constraints, including water availability, disease, limited suitable production sites and tighter environmental regulations governing effluent discharge.
The WAF report argues that these challenges do not necessarily require entirely new technological breakthroughs.
Instead, it points to existing production systems and experiences that have demonstrated the potential to increase output while reducing pressure on land and water resources.
India's aquaculture industry, for example, expanded from less than 1 million tonnes to nearly 20 million tonnes over roughly 75 years, supported by sustained public investment, according to the report.
Biofloc systems offer water-saving potential
The report also highlights commercial biofloc production systems in Ghana.
According to the WAF, these systems have reduced land requirements by about 20 times and water use by about 30 times, while operating without effluent discharge.
The technology could be particularly relevant in regions where conventional aquaculture faces constraints related to land and water availability.
In South Africa's Western Cape, the report points to another potential model. It estimates that diverting just 1 per cent of existing irrigation water to fish farming could produce an amount of fish comparable to the country's entire wild-caught hake quota, without requiring new land or water rights.
Scaling proven solutions remains a challenge
The report identifies the gap between successful demonstration and widespread adoption as one of the sector's biggest challenges.
It argues that the technologies needed to improve productivity and resource efficiency already exist in several markets, but that governance, financing and local implementation capacity have not kept pace.
The WAF also highlights the need to increase participation by smallholder producers, women and coastal communities, which it describes as important contributors to aquaculture but groups that often remain excluded from financing and decision-making.
The report calls for investment models that are based on demonstrated commercial value rather than technology promises alone.
Nine recommendations for aquaculture growth
The report makes nine recommendations for governments, investors and international institutions.
Among them are aligning national aquaculture policies with the FAO's Guidelines for Sustainable Aquaculture, maintaining long-term public investment in research and infrastructure, and expanding circular and zero-discharge production systems.
It also calls for greater investment in energy infrastructure and cold chains, particularly in emerging aquaculture markets such as sub-Saharan Africa.
The recommendations are intended to address both production constraints and the infrastructure gaps that can prevent farmers from converting higher production into commercially viable businesses.
Next phase may depend on implementation
The WAF report concludes that the future growth of aquaculture will depend on how quickly existing technologies, investment and policy frameworks can be connected at the farm level.
Rather than viewing aquaculture's expansion as solely a technology-development challenge, the report frames the next 20 years as an implementation challenge involving governments, investors, researchers and producers.
With demand for aquatic food continuing to increase and capture fisheries showing limited growth, the report suggests that the ability to scale resource-efficient aquaculture systems will be increasingly important to global food security.
