MUMBAI, 15 September 2025: The clock runs according to its own rules and within a fixed range. That is why people trust it for time. And those who do not value the clock, i.e. time, society shows them an exit route. In the commodity business, those who work within the range of their own decided commodity and their own decided investment capacity can enjoy reasonable profit.
Those who trade haphazardly, ignoring the market rules, have to get out of the market. Well, many commodities often fluctuate within a limited range according to the market situation. Which is called range-bound movement in the language of investment. If an investor understands this range, he gets an opportunity to earn. Currently, the movement of cumin prices is running in such a range-bound manner.
If we look at the price graph of the last three months, the NCDEX futures price is at its highest at INR 20,500 per quintal and at its lowest at INR 18,900 per quintal. Talking about the last three weeks, the price of cumin was INR 19,925 on 25 August-2025, which fell to INR 18,925 on 12 September-2025.
As per the market sources, there is limited export demand, but you can see buying support at the level of INR 19,000. This means that if traders buy at this price, the chances of losses will be less. Because there is a demand in the local and global markets at this price.
The main reason for the decline in prices is considered to be Chinese production and its sale in the global market. In fact, the quality of Chinese cumin is considered poor compared to Indian cumin. But people buy it because the price of Chinese cumin is low.
However, if Indian cumin is also available at a lower price, then Indian cumin gets the first choice. That level is considered at INR 19,000. As per market reports, Chinese production is estimated to be 40,000 tonnes to 60,000 tonnes this year. So, until this crop is sold, the global market may remain unstable.
When the cumin season started in early 2025, some stockists in India bought cumin. They do not want to stock up again until this commodity is sold. India exported 229,898 tonnes of cumin in 2024-25, which was much more than the export of 165,258 tonnes in 2023-24. In May-2025 too, India exported 24454 tonnes of cumin, which was 22280 tonnes in May-2024.
The period from September 2025 to November 2025 is going to be very important for the price of cumin. If the Kharif crop of groundnut is delayed due to the current heavy rains, the sowing of cumin in the upcoming Rabi season will also be delayed.
Apart from this, if the farmers get good prices for groundnuts, the sowing of summer groundnuts may also increase. If the sowing of groundnut increases, the sowing of cumin may decrease. In such an unstable situation, the farmers who are determined to sow cumin should buy cumin put options in NCDEX futures at the time of sowing. However, at present, the average daily volume in the futures is INR 35 crore, while the open interest is 5500 tonnes.
Due to the rainy weather, arrivals in the spot markets are low. After the Navratri festivals, more movement will be seen in the cumin market. Apart from this, the strategy of traders in Rajasthan will also affect the market.
By Kalpesh Sheth is an commodities expert with years of experience.
