MUMBAI, 30 June 2025: The world is currently going through a situation like an undeclared world war. A businessman sleeping tonight does not know what kind of attacks America, Israel or Russia will make on which country in the dark of night. This is the time for traders and farmers to be careful. If you do not get what you do not have, its fine, but you have to be careful that what you have is not looted.
We are going through a time of recession in the agricultural commodity wholesale trade and yet inflation in the retail market. Talking about turmeric, when the season started, the traders who used to make saffron style investments during the boom must be applying turmeric paste on the wounds today. The price of turmeric in futures has seen a decline of 10 percent per quintal in the last 20 days.
On June 10, the price of turmeric in futures on NCDEX was above INR 15,100 per quintal. Which was showing a level of INR 13,700 on June 26. This kind of fluctuation would confuse the trader.
Currently, you will get reports of increased sowing in the market one day, and then there are reports of a decrease in yield the next day. According to traders sitting at the farming regions, sowing has started in all the areas where turmeric is grown. There are preliminary reports of a 20 percent increase in cultivation in Sangli, Nizamabad and Marathwada this time.
Although the prices of turmeric are currently low, farmers are cultivating turmeric with the expectation of getting higher returns than other crops grown in these areas. Currently, there are reports of sowing in an area of 3.30 lakh hectares, which was recorded in three lakh hectares during this period last year. However, there are concerns that the crop will decrease even if the cultivation increases due to uncertain rainfall in Nanded district.
As the prices increased slightly, the arrivals of turmeric in the market yards increased the very next day. According to local brokers, an average daily arrival of 12,000 to 14,000 quintals of turmeric was recorded last week.
Although the season is coming to an end, business sometimes suddenly brightens up. In the Dugirala market, the prices of newly arrived goods are still quoted high. About five lakh tons of turmeric were produced this year.
Out of this, 55 to 60 percent of turmeric has been traded. In April 2025, India exported 14,956 tons of turmeric. Which is six percent more than the export in April 2024 last year but 0.92 percent less than the export in March 2025. In the production year 2024-25, India imported 10,000 tons of turmeric while exporting 120,000 tons of turmeric.
If we calculate the stock at the beginning of the year and the production of this year, the total supply is 518,000 tons. On the other hand, the total demand is 470,000 tons. This means there is no possibility of a long boom in the market as the supply is more than the demand.
Open interest in NCDEX futures has increased to 18,700 tonnes at present. While the average daily volume is INR 70-75 crore. If investors cut their sales positions to book profits, open interest may come down and the market may improve a bit but no long-term bullish trend is in sight. Investors will have to keep an eye on the planting data.
By Kalpesh Sheth is an commodities expert with years of experience.
Image credit: amazon.in
