MUMBAI, 1 September 2025: A truck moving on the highway had a sign on the back saying, “He who spreads rumours is a traitor to the country” – if the commodity business regulators make this statement a rule, then one can prepare a list of such traitors.
Often, the insistence of a trader to earn more at once and conquer the entire market locks his business acumen. Commodity traders now need to understand that the global market keeps an eye on the prices of every commodity. India is considered the top country in the world in turmeric exports. That is why global companies also keep an eye on the figures of turmeric cultivation in India. If we look at the figures, there has been a big fall in the prices of turmeric in the last two months. On June 12, 2025, the price of turmeric per quintal in NCDEX futures was INR 15,350. Which had decreased to INR 13,100 on August 28, 2025.
Whatever the rumours speeded in the market behind the price drop, the fact is that this time turmeric cultivation in India has increased by 15 to 20 percent compared to last year. Farmers have switched to turmeric instead of other commodities in the hope of earning more. Last year too, the cultivation was 10 percent more than average, and according to that calculation, this time turmeric cultivation has reportedly increased by 30 percent compared to the average. Also, the monsoon started early in India, so the crop will also come early.
Apart from this, the demand for turmeric is currently low, there is also a liquidity crunch in the market. Especially in export trade, payments from countries like Bangladesh are not made on time. People are afraid that this will affect the export business.
Due to the festive season, there has been some buying in the domestic markets. But it is not strong enough to boost the market. Moreover, some people in the market are talking about an increase in cultivation by 40 percent. Traders are estimating the production of the next season to be 85 lakh sacks. However, the group of bulls estimates that the crop will be limited to 75 lakh sacks.
In today's era of tariffs, as price risk is increasing in export trade, everyone will have to get into the habit of hedging. In the financial year 2024-25, India exported 176288 tonnes of turmeric, which was more than the 162012 tonnes exported by India in the financial year 2023-24.
In May-2025, India exported 19205 tonnes of turmeric. Which was more than the 17414 tonnes exported in May-24. However, exports were affected due to the global market turmoil in June-25. In June-25, India exported 13787 tonnes of turmeric, which shows a decrease of 7.93 % compared to the exports of June-24. Overall, in the first quarter of the financial year 2025-26, i.e. from April-25 to June-25, India has exported 46498.64 tonnes of turmeric.
Even today, there is an open interest of about 20,000 tonnes in NCDEX futures. An average daily trade of INR 15 to 20 crore was recorded in the last week. There is no possibility of much stock remaining in the spot market till the new season arrives, farmers in Warangal are tired of stocking turmeric, but they are not ready to sell turmeric until the expected price is met. In Duggirala, the price of new goods is much higher than the old goods.
On average, 1000 to 1200 sacks are traded daily. Now the planting season is over. So, everyone is waiting for the true picture of the crop. When the new arrivals start coming into the market, the trade will shine with a real turmeric colour.
By Kalpesh Sheth is an commodities expert with years of experience.
