MUMBAI, 13 October 2025: In the agricultural commodity business, there is always risk associated with trading, but a trader who does not trade due to fear of risk takes more risk. The arrival of new season guar seeds has started in Gujarat and Rajasthan. But currently the prices are so low that farmers are not willing to sell their goods.
If farmers had secured their minimum profit by buying a put option on guar seed options at a price of about INR 5400 at the time of sowing, they would have been happy today. If we look at the statistics, there has been a decline of 12 to 14 percent in the prices of guar gum and guar seed in the last two months. On 20th August-2025, the price of guar gum per quintal was INR 10100, which fell to INR 8632 per quintal on 7th October-2025.
Similarly, the price of guar seed per quintal was INR 5365 on 20th August 2025, which decreased to INR 4729 per quintal on 7th October 2025.
According to the data of the Agriculture Department of the Rajasthan Government released in the first week of September-2025, this time guar seed has been sown in 24.50 lakh hectares in Rajasthan. According to the data of the Gujarat Government at the end of the second week of September-2025, this time guar seed has been sown in 75000 hectares in Gujarat.
The final data is expected to show a slightly higher planting. New arrivals have started in the markets of Rajasthan, but there is no significant demand from the mills yet. It is reported that an average daily 5000 bags of guar seed have arrived in the markets Nationwide during the last week.
The opening stock of guar seed at the start of the season was 439000 lakh tonnes. This time, about 10.25 lakh tonnes of guar seed is expected to be produced. While the total consumption is expected to be about 10 lakh tonnes. Thus, experts believe that the prices of guar gum and seeds are decreasing as consumption is expected to remain low against a total supply of 14,64,000 tons.
As the prices of guar gum are currently falling continuously, mills are afraid of losses in new production. There is also talk in the market that the stock in the warehouses will increase in the coming days. In the NCDEX futures, there is currently an open interest of 53,000 tons in the guar gum contract, while there is an open interest of 67,000 tons in guar seed futures.
Guar gum has a daily turnover of INR 80 crore, while guar seed has an average daily turnover of INR 100 crore. Market circles believe that the arrival of guar seed from North Gujarat will be delayed due to the September last week rains in Gujarat.
According to the data of the Union Ministry of Commerce, in July-25, India exported 26241 tonnes of guar gum while it exported 21250 tonnes of guar split. Which is less than the exports in May-2025 and June-2025. India exported 277475 tonnes of guar gum in 2023-24 while it exported 269579 tonnes of guar gum in 2024-25.
Since guar gum has been used in the production of crude oil, the price of crude oil has also had an impact on the price of guar gum. Since the price of crude oil has also decreased for the last three months, the demand from crude oil producers has also been low, so the price of guar gum has also seen a slowdown. If this slowdown continues for a long time, the question is whether the market will have even a demand of 10 lakh tonnes of guar seed. Now, the millers are hoping that there will be some demand in the market after the Diwali festivals.
By Kalpesh Sheth is an commodities expert with years of experience.
Image credit: indiamart.com
