DARKER / Senegal, 30 June 2025: A groundbreaking study from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has revealed that sustainable agricultural intensification in Senegal could significantly improve food security and land conservation through smarter crop choices and diversified investments.

Published in the Journal of Cleaner Production, the study applies a financial portfolio-style analysis to guide cropland allocation, helping farmers balance risk and return across different crops, much like managing an investment portfolio.

Researchers argue that the current cropland allocation in Senegal, which prioritizes low-risk, low-return staple grains, fails to reach the “efficient frontier” — a benchmark for maximizing returns while minimizing risk. As a result, farmland expansion has continued, but rapid population growth still outpaces food production, leading to a food import dependency of around 70%.

By applying a diversified crop investment strategy, Senegal could reduce its land expansion needs by as much as 68% by 2030, the study found. This sustainable intensification (SI) method combines environmental and economic gains, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, conserving water resources, and enhancing biodiversity by promoting high-value crops like fruits and vegetables over grains.

The research, described as the first of its kind to integrate optimal cropland portfolio analysis with an economy-wide modeling approach, demonstrates that better land-use strategies can transform agricultural outcomes while avoiding large-scale land conversion.

“Most arable land in Senegal is rain-fed, with poor soil quality and erratic rainfall,” noted one of the lead authors. “By encouraging farmers to diversify toward higher-value crops, and supporting them with risk-mitigation measures, there is potential to boost production and protect ecosystems.”

The study recommends that policymakers in Senegal look beyond sector-by-sector investments and instead adopt a broad economic framework to allocate agricultural resources. Targeted policies — such as expanding rural infrastructure, improving farmers’ access to credit, and offering insurance products — could make smallholders more willing to plant higher-risk, higher-reward crops.

As climate variability intensifies and the demand for food rises, the sustainable intensification approach provides a blueprint for food security that is resilient, efficient, and environmentally sound.