MUMBAI, 30 November 2025: Indian ginner is currently going through a period of playing a labyrinthine game, his ginning factory is running. But he does not know when he will make a profit.
Trapped in the maze of weather effects, market fluctuations and government policies, the trader does not know when parity will be achieved and when not. The situation of the farmer is similar. At the time of sowing i.e. in July 2025, the price of Shankar Kapas was quoted at INR 1631 per 20 KG, which has come down to INR 1535 on 27 November 2025.
On the other hand, the price of cottonseed Oil cake per quintal has suddenly increased by INR 125 in a week. On 18 November, the NCDEX futures were at INR 2845, which increased to INR 2970 on 27 November. The government has started buying bales through the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI). So now the direction of the market may change. This time the government has fixed the minimum support price of long staple Kapas at INR 8110 per quintal while the price of Kapas in the open market is even lower than that. So farmers prefer to sell their produce to CCI. Farmers had to face difficulties this time as they had to register through the App to sell goods in CCI.
The country produced 296 lakh bales of cotton last year, which the government estimates to be 292 lakh bales this time. However, ICAC estimates it to be 300 lakh to 305 lakh bales. On the other hand, India's consumption, which was 300 lakh bales earlier, is estimated to be 285 to 290 lakh bales this time. Experts believe that this decline is due to reduced textile exports due to the burden of Trump's tariffs.
This time the market is very uncertain, and till last week, importing bales were cheaper for mills than domestic bales. That is why India imported nine lakh bales only in October. The same number of imports are expected in November 2025 and in December 2025. Thus, India will consume about 25 lakh imported bales in the first three months of the season. Last year, a total of 43 lakh bales were imported in the entire year.
This time too, till now, the price of foreign bales at mill gates were INR 51,000 to INR 53,000, while the price of domestic bales was INR 54,000. Moreover, since imported cotton is machine picked and contamination free, the mills get 4 to 5 percent more realization, which is more favourable. Apart from this, due to unseasonal rains in the month of October, the moisture content in domestic cotton was also high.
CCI has now started buying. The average daily arrivals crossed over two lakh bales. So now the market direction can change. In the midst of great uncertainty, it is imperative to hedge trades in the Kapas and ginning business. In NCDEX futures, an average of INR 20 crore is traded daily in cottonseed oil cake futures. In which the open interest is 33,000 tons. While in Kapas futures, average daily trade of INR 1 crore. There is still a possibility of fresh unseasonal rains in the South. It remains to be seen what effect it will have.