MUMBAI, 4 July 2025: People often stay away from mud so that their clothes do not get spoiled, but mud has such arrogance that people are afraid of it. China and America often behave like mud on the global stage. Even American corporates are tired of Trump, who issued edict like tariffs in the morning and relief in the evening. It is also affecting the commodity business in the global market. Similarly, China is troubling exporters of many countries including India by running on the wrong way in the cumin trade.
Usually, China imports cumin in large quantities. But now China is exporting cumin, which has shaken the market. The quality of Indian cumin is many times better than the quality of Chinese cumin in the global market. But since the price is low, Chinese cumin is being traded. In such circumstances, Indian exporters are unable to sell good quality cumin.
Due to the decline in export demand, the price of cumin in India is finding new lows. In a month, the price of cumin per quintal has decreased by INR 1625. On June 30, 2025, the price of cumin in the NCDEX futures was INR 20575, which fell to INR 18950 on July 31, 2025. Due to the low price, farmers are not coming to sell cumin, in the last week, an average daily arrival of 6000 sacks of cumin were recorded in the Unjha mandi. According to local brokers, farmers in Gujarat still have about 40 percent stock. But due to the low price, farmers are not coming to sell.
Instead of buying cumin in the global market, China is exporting it, there is no demand from Bangladesh, traders who supply cumin to Pakistan via the Dubai route are currently inactive. According to experts, this time the production of cumin in China is expected to increase to 40,000 to 60,000 tons. That is why even though the quality is poor, Chinese cumin is sold at low prices. India exported 1,89,316 tons of cumin in 2022, while in 2023 it exported 1,47,316 tons and in 2024 it exported 2,37,227 tons of cumin.
By the end of May in 2025, 96,172 tons of cumin have been exported. In India, cumin is exported the most during the new cumin season i.e. March, April, May and June. Now this period has passed. Chinese cumin is available at low prices. Therefore, there is no chance that Indian cumin exports will increase much.
It is estimated that 4,50,000 tonnes of cumin will be produced in India in the 2025 Rabi season. This was 5,25,000 tonnes last year. A total of 6,00,000 tonnes of cumin is available, including old stock and imports. While a total of 4,00,000 tonnes of cumin is required for export and domestic consumption, it is expected that there will be a stock of two lakh tonnes of cumin at the end of the season. Now, if there is a special purchase in the domestic market for the upcoming festivals, the market may get support.
Due to price volatility, exporters need to hedge their trades in futures. The average daily trading volume in futures is currently Rs 15 crore. Open interest is 6500 tonnes while there is 4149 tonnes of cumin stock in NCCL certified warehouses in Unjha. Currently, all this stock is lying in the warehouses in Unjha. This means that traders in Rajasthan are not stocking up because there is no boom at the moment.
By Kalpesh Sheth is an commodities expert with years of experience.